[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W EQ38W 2S45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 3N BETWEEN 27W-50W...
EXTENDING TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXPANSIVE CUT-OFF DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENTAL US...WHICH IS IN TURN CAUSING NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CORE SPEEDS OF
150-180 KT IS SCREAMING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA SWWD TO 24N90W AS A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT...THEN
AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS ALL BUT VANISHED ALONG THE FRONT WITH REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
SAINT AUGUSTINE TO NEAR CEDAR KEY IN FLORIDA. WEAK 1013 MB HIGH
PRES HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED OVER SW LOUISIANA
AND ALSO ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SAT UNTIL A SECOND
SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NEW MEXICO GIVES THE BOUNDARY A SECOND PUSH.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OF THE GULF WATERS BY SUN
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE SW
GULF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

CARIBBEAN...

A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N/19N STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO EXTREME SE MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SW TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THEN SW ACROSS PANAMA.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION...THE STRONGEST AREA BEING JUST N OF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SCARCE...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING NW TOWARDS PUERTO RICO...THE MONA
PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS AREA IS COVERED BY AN
AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE TRANSITIONING INTO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALONG 62W...WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING EWD FROM FLORIDA TO 65W.
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO
19N57W AND THE DIFFLUENCE E OF IT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
DEVELOPING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN
43W-46W. THIS ACTIVITY LIES NEAR A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
LYING ALONG 32N39W 28N50W 26N55W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES ALONG 52W FROM 14N TO 21N...
MAINLY AS A PRESSURE PERTURBATION BUT ALSO SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
SLIGHT TURNING IN THE CUMULUS FIELD.

OVER THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A 1025
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N22W WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING SW TO
28N42W. A REX BLOCK IS IN PROGRESS AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN
EXTENDED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N42W IN THE TROPICS NE TO
MADEIRA ISLAND THEN EWD INTO NORTHERN MOROCCO...LYING ON TOP OF
A SHEARED TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ALGERIA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
15N29W SW OF THE CAPE VERDES. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN EMBEDDED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN
IS OBSTRUCTING THE OVERALL FLOW S OF 35N...SO THINGS WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS OR SO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS W
AFRICA OR THE E ATLC WATERS.

$$
COBB







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