[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BARRY CENTER AT 02/1200 UTC IS 27.1 83.5W OR
ABOUT 75 NM/135 KM SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA...MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 KT...ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
997 MB...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 45 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
NM/150 KM FROM THE CENTER. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING ALONG SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME...WITH NOAA BUOY 41009 EAST
OF CAPE CANAVERAL REPORTING GUSTS TO 47 MPH DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS AND  LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.  WIND AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH
BARRY ARE PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PARTS OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BARRY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA.  THESE RAINS MAY
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
20N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W SOUTH OF CUBA...NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...TO THE BAHAMAS WEST OF 76W AND ALL THE WAY
TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.  STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST...FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 86W AND THE COAST...AND OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS. A SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WEST OF FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 28N AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. RAIN
IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS SUBSIDED FOR THE MOMENT AS CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING. MORE RAIN MAY BE ON THE WAY
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. LET US WAIT FOR TROPICAL STORM
BARRY.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A POORLY-DEFINED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W
SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA OF THIS WAVE FROM THE WEST. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 27N19W TO 20N25W TO 13N35W.
ALL POSSIBLY-RELATED PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ALONG THE GUINEA COAST AT 13W FROM 9N TO 10N...TO 7N20W 6N30W
6N43W 6N47W TO 6N58W AT THE COAST OF GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 4N3W 4N11W...WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N26W
7N37W 8N44W 8N51W 8N54W 9N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
1N TO 5N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS AREA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE WEST OF BARRY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE WEST OF 83W. THE DRY AIR IS ENCROACHING
UPON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...AND ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND
80W TO THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD TO 30N. THE SOUTHEASTERN
YUCATAN COAST AND HONDURAS THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE TAIL END
OF THE FLOW/DYNAMICS RELATED TO THE PRECIPITATION NEAR CUBA.
EVERYTHING IS HAPPENING IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. THE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
REACHES 15N56W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALSO IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM THE RIDGE ON TOP OF
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM BARRY...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALSO NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 63W. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N54W TO 15N56W. THIS IS THE
SAME TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 31N45W TO 27N52W TO 20N62W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. AN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE GOES FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N19W TO
30N26W TO 20N42W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N19W TO
20N25W TO 13N35W.

$$
MT


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