[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE
FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W EQ30W 2S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 0300 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1013 MB IS OBSERVED NEAR
26N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE
LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS BANKED UP
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO SUGGESTS
THAT A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS ALONG THE SLOPE. MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/FRONTS IS NOW
OCCURRING NEAR THE NE MEXICO...TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA COASTS.
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOUND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. WHILE THE
WEAK LOW ITSELF IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY...THE GRADIENT
POLEWARD OF IT SHOULD AMPLIFY AND WINDS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TOMORROW. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS N TEXAS TO A LOW OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO. WINDS ALOFT ARE NEARLY UNIFORM FROM THE WEST FROM 30 KT
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO 100 KT ALONG THE US GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA.
THERE ARE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 60
NM OF THE FRONT.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED.  AT THE SURFACE E TO NE TRADES PREVAIL WITH PEAK WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT EXIST JUST NORTH OF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS
OF COSTA RICA AS WELL AS OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STABLE NW WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. A TROUGH LIES ALONG
26/27W WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING WEST AFRICA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 992 MB LOW NE OF BERMUDA ALONG 28N70W TO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT.
SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 11
FEET. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD
AND MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NORTH OF 26N TODAY. THESE WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE.
A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N26W.  THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY WEST OF 36W AND REACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF 26N. THIS FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

$$
GR




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