[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W 0N41W 1S46W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 2100 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1012 MB IS OBSERVED NEAR
25N95W ALONG A PRE-EXISTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE WARM
FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING EXTENDS BOTH EAST FROM THE
LOW TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS BANKED UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS ALONG THE SLOPE.  MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OCCURS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE NE MEXICO...TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA COASTS.  SCATTERED WEAK
SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOUND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.  WHILE THE WEAK LOW ITSELF IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
INTENSIFY...THE GRADIENT POLEWARD OF IT SHOULD AMPLIFY AND WINDS
TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TOMORROW.  WINDS ALOFT ARE NEARLY UNIFORM FROM THE WEST FROM 30
KT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO 100 KT ALONG THE US GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
SEA.  THERE ARE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN
ABOUT 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED.  AT THE SURFACE E TO NE TRADES PREVAIL
WITH PEAK WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT EXIST JUST
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA FROM
32N64W TO 28N72W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 61 AND 73W.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE UP TO 30 KT
AND SEAS 8 TO 11 FEET.  THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AND MODERATE SW WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N DURING THE NEXT DAY.  A SECOND
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N28W TO 21N42W.  THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY WEST OF 42W AND REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF 26N.  THIS FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ALOFT...STABLE NW WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST
OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.

$$
LANDSEA


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