[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
3N2W 5N12W 4N30W 3N37W 4N43W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S53W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 37W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD...FROM 7N TO 24N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO
NORTH OF 20N...ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS AND NORTHWARD BEYOND
TEXAS...IN RESPONSE TO A CENTRAL U.S.A. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EAST...NOW RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO CUBA TO FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE STILL KEEPING
THE AREA FREE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT ONLY FROM THE BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS/MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES
FROM A 1013 MB MIDDLE TEXAS COAST/UPPER TEXAS COAST LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...FINALLY TO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ANOTHER PART OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE SAME TEXAS LOW CENTER TO THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS AND THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD
IN MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE RIDGE MOVES FROM FLORIDA/GEORGIA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 30N60W.
THE FLOW BECOMES SPLIT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF 30N60W...WITH
SOME OF IT GOING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...AND THE
SOME OF IT GOING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF ANOTHER
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH NEAR 13N33W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVER THE AREA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 12N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN
60W AND JAMAICA...NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 80W...AND
MOSTLY SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED INTO AND/OR ARE MOVING INTO NICARAGUA
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF HONDURAS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N55W 29N60W 26N70W 26N76W.
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE NORTH OF 29N80W 27N70W 29N60W
BEYOND 31N57W. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N57W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 33W/34W...HAVING MOVED
EASTWARD ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE FROM YESTERDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
30N41W TO 26N39W TO 22N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N23W
TO 23N23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN
37W AND 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W.

$$
MT




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