[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202258
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N14W 4N25W 3N39W 2N45W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 2100 UTC...A RAPIDLY DROPPING 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST
OF TEXAS JUST S OF GALVESTON WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG
THE COAST TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO THEN
CONTINUING N ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AS A STATIONARY FRONT. ALSO FROM THE SURFACE LOW A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS E TO 27N89W WHERE IT MERGES WITH A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC.
THE LOW AND COLD/WARM FRONTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CURRENTLY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SW
TO OVER NW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS
MEXICO FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MAINLY INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE W ATLC. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF
THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE
GULF S OF THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 80W-89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER
HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N83W AND
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 16N W OF 80W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW ATLC DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N56W EXTENDING W TO 27N74W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS S FLORIDA. AT
THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 24N58W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W S TO
22N42W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N43W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SE ALONG 23N40W THEN SW TO
17N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 21N BETWEEN 35W-40W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN
THE TROPICS WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING BETWEEN THE AZORES
AND THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 17N35W.

$$
PAW


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