[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N26W 2N41W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
34W-44W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N GULF
WHILE THE S PORTION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK WESTWARD. THE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE TO N OF TAMPA ALONG 25N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 25N W OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N AND W OF
THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES AS WELL AS
MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE
GULF REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS IN
THE W ATLC. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS FUELING THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE US EXTENDS S INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
GULF WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO OFF THE SW
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N82W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERS THE
W CARIBBEAN NE OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO PANAMA/COSTA RICA
BORDER. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN.
A SURGE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REGION SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWERS. STRONG TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN CROSSING THE GULF OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS NOW EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ALONG 32N76W INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE SE US.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
NEAR 26N77W AND COVERS THE ATLC W OF 60W. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE THE AREA LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N55W WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DIPPING SW OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N55W TO 25N51W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
17N-23N BETWEEN 45W-54W. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE ATLC BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND THE AZORES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 31N42W TO THE
W ATLC OFF THE US E COAST. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
INCLUDING THE SE CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLACE


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