[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG EQ1W 4N15W 3N30W 2N52W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 19W-23W...FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 32W-40W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E.  AS OF 2100 UTC THE
FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S MEXICO ALONG
30N84W 25N92W 18N94W. THIS FRONT MARKS THE BOUNDARY OF A
DISTINCT AIRMASS CHANGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONDITIONS ARE
WARM AND HUMID WITH LIGHT SELY WINDS AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 82W
FROM 22N-25N PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...NLY WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR THE SW GULF S OF 25N.  THIS STRONG FLOW IS ADVECTING MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. AT 2300 UTC...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE HIGH 30'S ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST WARMING INTO THE LOW
50'S OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...STRETCHING W TO
THE SLOPES OF THE MEXICAN SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...WHERE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND ALONG 17N96W 20N98W 22N101W 25N100W
DELINEATED BY A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND BANKING OF LOW CLOUDS.
ALOFT...A SUBTROPICAL JET IS ADVECTING A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO N MEXICO...TO THE N
CENTRAL GULF...TO BEYOND GEORGIA.  LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD
FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH TO S FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL
BE ALONG 26N80W 24N93W 18N93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY OVER HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  A GALE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE
WATERS ALONG N COLOMBIA. ALOFT...EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.  THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W HAS DRY AIR ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LOW JUST W OF COSTA RICA NEAR 9N88W.  THE
CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN HAS SWLY FLOW DUE TO A RIDGE OVER S
AMERICA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
31N40W.  FURTHER S ...A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ELY
SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALONG 26N48W 20N53W 13N55W PRODUCING LOW TO MID
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 45W-54W.
E OF 35W A DENSE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS EVIDENT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR 21N53W.  WLY FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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