[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
PRIME MERIDIAN AT 4N...7N10W 5N20W 3N30W 2N42W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AT 45W...TO 2S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 50W.
HIGH CLOUDS FROM 4N TO 19N EAST OF 27W...AND FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH-
TO-GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE PATTERN FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS
BASICALLY THE SAME...EXCEPT SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS THE GULF WATERS.
THE RIDGE IS RIGHT ON TOP OF FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES FROM MEXICO NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 98W INTO TEXAS...AND
ACROSS THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 60W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 75W.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMES FROM A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N62W FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N70W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF
70W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS EAST OF 69W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 17N EAST OF 67W...AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND
63W. A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10N75W
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W IS FOR
NORTHEASTERN WINDS 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. THE WIND
FORECAST FOR THE WATERS ELSEWHERE WEST OF 65W IS FOR NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPILLS OVER
FROM FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 60W
NORTH OF 20N. THIS FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE BASE OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N56W
TO 20N62W...AND EVENTUALLY TO 13N70W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. A JET STREAM/WIND MAXIMA FROM 500 MB TO 100 MB
IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N60W 26N50W BEYOND 32N40W.
THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS REACH 60 KT FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN
50W AND 62W ACCORDING TO THE 13/1800 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N40W TO 29N50W TO
26N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W...AND DISSIPATING WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
27N56W 31N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N23W 29N25W 34N26W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 27N FROM 22N BEYOND 32N.

$$
MT




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