[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 7N15W
4N25W 2N35W AND THEN CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 25W-32. OVERALL THOUGH...VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION
NOTED WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED NM OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SW PORTION OF STRONG ATLC SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PRODUCING 10 TO 20 KT
SE FLOW...ALONG WITH MODERATE ESE WIND WAVES AND SWELL. THE GULF
REMAINS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A NARROW ZONE OF LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN UP
AGAINST THE MEXICAN COAST AND ADJACENT SW GULF WATERS. CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO SEEN BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE FL PANHANDLE...ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. UPPER RIDGING ALSO HOVERS OVER THE GULF...WHICH IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NRN GULF WATERS
IN ADDITION TO THE DEEP SOUTH/SE U.S. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE NW GULF DURING MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH GALE FORCE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN TODAY...AS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG ATLC HIGH
PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLOMBIAN
COAST. GENERALLY SPEAKING THOUGH...WIDESPREAD 20-30 KT ELY WINDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH ARE ADVECTING TYPICAL
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD. SIMILAR
TRADES TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST SIGNIFICANT
AREA OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE SE PORTION BETWEEN THE ABC
ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS AREA NOW SEEMS TO BE
GETTING SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH
THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE
THIS MOISTURE RICH AREA FAIRLY WELL...AND SUGGEST THE AREA WILL
SHRINK A BIT INTO SUNDAY. WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W REMAINS
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING AND VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1034 MB SFC HIGH JUST NE OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED 6 TO 12 FT SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD E TO NE SWELL HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED. THIS SUBSIDES VERY SLOWLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH SLIDES E AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
COLD FRONT. THE TRADE FLOW ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS
ADVECTING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD.
STATIONARY FRONT SEEN ON THE 1200 UTC MAP IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
BECOMING DIFFUSE. UPPER PATTERN IN W AND CENTRAL ATLC DOMINATED
BY A RIDGE TO THE W THEN A SHARP TROUGH. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NE
FROM PUERTO RICO THROUGH 24N60W 32N52W. ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM SE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL IN THE E
ATLC WITH JUST A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED. E ATLC SFC
PATTERN GENERALLY DOMINATED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES...THOUGH
A DISSIPATING 1020 MB SFC LOW NEAR 29N24W HAS LIGHTER WINDS
ROTATING AROUND ITSELF.

$$
WILLIS






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