[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N1W 4N10W 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W EQ50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 28W-39W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 35W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1038 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING
10-20 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS IS
GENERATING MODERATE E TO SE WIND WAVES/SWELL ACROSS THE GULF.
HIGHER WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO
A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE GULF IS VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...HOWEVER ON SHORE WINDS ARE PRODUCING
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS W OF 96W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.  A BAND OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING FROM THE SE
PACIFIC TO N MEXICO AND TEXAS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS.  EXPECT SURFACE WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO VEER IN
DIRECTION INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-30 KT TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS DOTS THE BASIN. A MORE
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH
TRINIDAD AND NE VENEZUELA. GFS MOISTURE FIELDS NOTE THIS AREA
FAIRLY WELL.  LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W.  THE BASE OF A SHARP TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  WLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N66W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W TO E CUBA NEAR
21N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
EXTENSIVE COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXIST BEHIND THIS FRONT
TO THE FLORIDA COAST.  20-30 KT NELY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT TO FLORIDA.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N22W 20N27W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 15W-24W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-80W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-50W.  A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 30N23W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 13N BETWEEN
10W-40W.  A 70-90 KT TROPICAL JET IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM
3N-13N E OF 55W PRODUCING WLY FLOW WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

$$
FORMOSA





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