[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N1W 4N10W 5N20W EQ40W EQ50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 1W-20W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-34W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
1039 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS NEAR
37N69W TONIGHT...ALLOWING SFC WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
GRADUALLY VEER E TO SE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE. THIS IS GENERATING
MODERATE E TO SE WIND WAVES/SWELL ACROSS THE GULF.  HIGHER WINDS
OF 25-30 KT ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO A TIGHTER
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE GULF IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...HOWEVER ON SHORE WINDS ARE PRODUCING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS AND
MEXICAN COASTS W OF 96W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.  A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING FROM THE SE PACIFIC TO N
MEXICO AND TEXAS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT SURFACE WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-30 KT TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS DOTS THE BASIN. A MORE
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH
TRINIDAD AND NE VENEZUELA. GFS MOISTURE FIELDS NOTE THIS AREA
FAIRLY WELL.  LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W.  THE BASE OF A SHARP TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  WLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1039 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N69W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N50W TO E CUBA NEAR
21N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
EXTENSIVE COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXIST BEHIND THIS FRONT
TO THE FLORIDA COAST.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N22W 23N22W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
28N-32N BETWEEN 20W-25W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-80W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N45W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
30N23W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 13N BETWEEN 10W-40W.  A 70-90 KT
TROPICAL JET IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 3N-13N E OF 55W PRODUCING
WLY FLOW WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

$$
FORMOSA


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