[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...1N10W 2N16W 5N26W 4N36W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AT 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N EAST OF 16W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS WEST OF THIS FEATURE COVERING MOST OF THE WATERS
WEST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH...
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO
21N92W. ONE LINE OF SHOWERS IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
28N89W 29N87W BEYOND 31N86W. A SECOND AIR OF SHOWERS IS FROM 27N
TO 30N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N91W
24N87W...AND THEN WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N87W
27N83W BEYOND 30N82W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THIS LINE
ALSO...BUT MOSTLY NORTH OF 27N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 80W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.THE
WIND FORECAST IS FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT NORTH
OF 11N...AND SEAS 10 TO 15 FT BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE. THE MOST PROMINENT
AREA OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 63W AND
75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF 14N EAST OF 70W...ALONG WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN
SEA TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA/YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N79W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THIS
RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHEAST OF CUBA WEST OF 70W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N55W THROUGH 20N60W INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS TROUGH...AND THEN THEY HAVE BEEN PUSHED
QUICKLY THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...FROM
19N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W...FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
56W AND 62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N51W 18N57W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W...AND FROM 22N TO 27N
BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N46W
TO 28N56W...DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 28N56W TO 29N67W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM 31N34W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N31W
TO 20N31W TO 16N30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 18N TO 35N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net