[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 2N15W
5N30W 3N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITHIN 60NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 2W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90NM N AND 60NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ERN ARKANSAS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WRN GULF ALONG 29N90W 22N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NRN GULF WATERS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 84W-90W. DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL...WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS NOTED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA THROUGH PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE GULF PORTION OF THE FRONT IS
DIMINISHING...WITH THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN ITS WAKE. UPPER SUPPORT IS HEALTHIER WITH DISTINCT DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY E THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE ERN GULF.
SFC WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE SE TO S 15-20 KT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BACKING OFF A NOTCH INTO TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE TEXAS
COAST LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE TRADE FLOW
NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. HOWEVER...STRONG E WINDS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS
VICINITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BRISK 20-25 KT TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
GENERATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. BESIDES FOR THE STRONG
TRADES...THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS ABUNDANT DRY
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR DOMINATES THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB AND TROUGHING
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CARIB. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE BEING CARRIED BY THE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...AFFECTING THE LESSER/GREATER ANTILLES
FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM THE WRN
CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING EXTENSIVE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA N OF THE
BAHAMAS W OF 70W. UPPER TROUGH IS E OF THIS RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING SSW FROM 32N55W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE TO
ITS E IS SUPPORTING THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SEEN N OF 22N BETWEEN 41W-56W. THIS IS ALSO
GETTING LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE OLD SFC STATIONARY THAT
ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N45W AND EXTENDS WSW TO 28N60W...ALONG WITH
THE WEAK SFC TROUGH LOCATED SE OF THE FRONT FROM 32N40W TO
23N50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW AND CENTRAL NORTH ATLC SFC
PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 35N57W. IN THE ERN ATLC...AN
UPPER LOW IS NEAR 23N36W. A WIDE AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS WITH
POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS LIES TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW...N OF
20N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 33W. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
IS SPREADING E AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC.
1034 MB SFC HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE E ATLC AS WELL.

$$
WILLIS




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net