[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 232332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W EQ30W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST
OFFSHORE THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 4W-13W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE S OF 5N BETWEEN 35W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE BRAZIL...FRENCH
GUIANA...AND SURINAME ALONG AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ALONG 90W HAS BROUGHT
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION TODAY. SKIES ARE
GENERALLY CLEAR E OF 88W TO FLORIDA BUT CLOUDS ARE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF AS MOIST RETURN FLOW SETS UP INTO A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT IS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS AND EXTENDS
ROUGHLY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TX SE TO 24N90W. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRES IS CENTERED NEAR N FLORIDA WITH PERHAPS THE TAIL END OF AN
ATLC COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS S FLORIDA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY
USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
OVER TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST INTO THE NW
GULF SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL FROM N FLORIDA TO THE SW
GULF MON MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR NRN GULF/GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY SAT/SAT NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF SUN AND MON AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS.

CARIBBEAN...

MID-LEVEL HIGH TODAY IS CENTERED ALONG THE CAMPECHE COAST OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING ESE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...THIS IS PRODUCING AN ONGOING SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE REGION AND IS KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED.
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS...LIKELY AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DOES
EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA THEN TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED
OVER VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS YESTERDAY HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A NARROW SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING FROM BARBADOS SW
TO 6N69W NEAR THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA BORDER.

WEST ATLANTIC...

A LARGE AND COMPLEX POLAR VORTEX REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE
W ATLC WATERS. AN INTENSE 969 MB LOW WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N61W ALTHOUGH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COMES INTO THE AREA FROM 31N58W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA. THERE IS ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ABOUT 240 NM SE OF THE FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 31N56W TO
24N70W. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF IS DRY...THERE ARE ISOLATED TSTMS
DEVELOPING UP TO 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ABOUT 150 NM N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SAT
NIGHT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE PORTION CONTINUING TO THE E AND
PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST ON MON BUT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE SE.
ELSEWHERE...A NON-SIGNIFICANT 1013 MB LOW IS LOCATED JUST OFF
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

EAST ATLANTIC...

A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MADEIRA ISLAND NEAR
32N18W WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE AREA
TO 25N40W THEN TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS STRONG HIGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE S...GENERALLY
STRADDLING THE EQUATOR. THE UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE FLOW IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG 26W AND A
DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE IBERIAN PENINSULA
AND MOROCCO. BENEATH THAT FLOW...A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW/UPPER
TROUGH IS STILL CENTERED NEAR 17N32W WITH ITS OWN PATCH OF
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING BROKEN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDES...BUT NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
BERG




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