[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N25W EQ30W TO THE NE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
15W. NUMEROUS MODERATE IS AFFECTING COASTAL BRAZIL AND ADJACENT
WATERS BETWEEN 37W-52W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS N OF THE AXIS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 34W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ABUNDANCE OF CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER IS AFFECTING THE
GULF WATERS E OF 88W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS ARE
W OF 88W...WITH MOIST SE TO S RETURN FLOW DOMINATING ON THE SW
PORTION OF SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE GULF FROM THE N. A WEAK
SFC TROF REMAINS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N94W
18N92W...BUT IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IT WAS THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A DYING STATIONARY FRONT ON THE 1200 UTC MAP
THROUGH THE NRN GULF WATERS BETWEEN CLEARWATER FLORIDA AND SRN
LOUISIANA...WHICH WAS REMOVED AT 1500 UTC AS THE RIDGING FROM
THE N HAS TAKEN OVER. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
ALSO THE THEME EXTENDING N FROM CENTRAL AMERICA. A SUBTROPICAL
JET BRANCH RIDING ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS
ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
MEXICO AND INTO THE N GULF...CURRENTLY CONFINED N OF 26N.
SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH SAT IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SAT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 25N THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT STRONGER NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE TRADES
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THEIR TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE W/SWWD. THE MOST EXTENSIVE OF THESE MOISTURE REGIONS IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND HAITI IN A REGION OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE. ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND E FROM CENTRAL AMERICA OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING CLIPS THE NE CARIB AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHILE
RIDGING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE SE CARIB.
REGARDLESS...ABUNDANT DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE
BASIN WHICH IS SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.
THE DRIEST AIR IS NOTED S OF 15S WHERE UPPER CONFLUENCE IS THE
CULPRIT. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA.


WEST ATLANTIC...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER LOW S OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N66W AND CONTINUES WSW
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS EASY TO FIND E OF 73W WHERE A
THIN ROPE CLOUD IS EVIDENT...BUT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE TO THE W.
A DEWPOINT GRAD IS EVIDENT OVER FLORIDA BUT UNIFORM NLY FLOW HAS
MADE THE PLACEMENT DIFFICULT. REGARDLESS...RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONTAL ENERGY MOVES
E/NE. NONETHELESS...THE EFFECTS OF THE LARGE LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE FELT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG NW SWELL
SPREADS SE THROUGH THE AREA...CREATING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
AT NORTH EXPOSED BEACHES. A SFC TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG 28N62W 23N74W...WHICH IS MARKED BY A BROKEN LINE OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW HAS PERSISTED JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG WEATHER FEATURE BUT
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 23N BETWEEN 68W-73W.

EAST ATLANTIC...

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB CENTER
ABOUT 150 NM W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THIS IS GENERATING
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT...A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 55W...WITH
A FEW SMALLER FEATURES EMBEDDED MAINLY S OF 20N. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED OF THESE EMBEDDED FEATURES IS THE UPPER TROUGH W OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 25W-37W...THOUGH IS SURROUNDED BY
DRY/STABLE AIR AND IS NOT GENERATING ANY NOTABLE WEATHER.

$$
WILLIS


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