[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N27W 1N35W ALONG THE EQUATOR
FROM 40W-52W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE E
US WITH THE AXIS ALONG 88W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC
AND THE GULF WITH A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC WITH RETURN
SURFACE FLOW DOMINATING THE GULF. DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE GULF WITH ONLY SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO SHIFT N OVER THE S US COVERING
THE GULF N OF 28N WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC BARELY CLIPS THE N
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W SW TO
14N75W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CENTRAL PANAMA. LARGE
PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF FRONT/TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAITI.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 48W WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N45W
BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IS NOW
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N57W WSW TO 29N70W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT N OF 23N WITH MOSTLY
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 80W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD COVERING THE W ATLC
AND GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N75W. THE
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL JET IS CENTERED MOSTLY N OF THE REGION
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SE US INTO
THE W ATLC N OF A LINE FROM 26N80W 25N67W TO BEYOND 32N40W. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N45W WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N29W. NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS
MOSTLY OVER NW AFRICA WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE
TROPICS NEAR 21N16W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 10N55W
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE E ATLC IS
ALSO DOMINATED BY A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A
1025 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N25W SW TO 22N50W. THIS IS
KEEPING THE AREA E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSTLY FAIR.

$$
WALLACE



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