[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200510
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N23W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 3W-8W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 3N
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE SE
US WITH THE AXIS ALONG 96W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E
GULF E OF 83W INTO THE W ATLC LEAVING THE GULF WITH ONLY
SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF WITH A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE SE
US COAST WITH RETURN SURFACE FLOW DOMINATING MOST OF THE OVER
THE GULF. DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS
SHIFTED N OVER THE S US COVERING THE GULF N OF 26N WITH WINDS OF
80 TO 100 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC BARELY CLIPS THE N
CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W SW TO 15N70W. LARGE PATCHES
OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF FRONT CONTINUING SW ALONG 12N77W TO
PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAITI. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 48W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION JUST NEAR 32N49W ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N64W. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IS
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N57W SW ALONG 27N66W
THEN W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LEADING
COLD FRONT N OF 23N. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS CENTERED N OF THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDING FROM OVER THE N GULF
OF MEXICO AND SE US INTO THE W ATLC N OF A LINE FROM 27N80W
25N70W TO BEYOND 32N40W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N44W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO
BEYOND 32N34W. NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N12W S OVER W AFRICA NEAR 23N14W THEN AS A SHEAR AXIS
SW INTO THE TROPICS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 10N49W
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE E ATLC IS
ALSO DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB
HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N27W SW TO 21N52W. THIS IS KEEPING
THE AREA E OF 60W MOSTLY FAIR WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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