[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N25W 1N35W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W...1S40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 29W...EXCEPT FOR MORE NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY NEAR COASTAL BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BROUGHT THE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
AIRMASS TO THE REGION HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A DENSE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAINFALL EXISTS IN THE SRN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...SE OF A
LINE FROM TAMPICO TO FT MYERS. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS EXIST NW OF THAT LINE EXCEPT FOR THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE GULF COAST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST...WHERE COLD
OFFSHORE FLOW...VERY DRY AIR...AND COOLER SSTS ARE PREVENTING
MUCH CLOUD COVER. FAIRLY UNIFORM UPPER WSW FLOW DOMINATES THE
GULF...WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 22N-29N. ELSEWHERE AT
THE SFC...AS OF 2100 UTC A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED IN THE NW
GULF NEAR 28N93W. STRONG NLY WINDS PERSIST IN THE SRN GULF
MAINLY S OF 26N BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONG NW TO N FLOW WILL DEVELOP
LATE SAT INTO SUN BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY BROAD STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
REGION SUPPLYING AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT TSTM ACTIVITY. THE DRIEST AIR
IS IN THE UPPER CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA. BENEATH THE STRONG MID LEVEL CAP...SMALL
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING STEERED BY LIGHT ELY
TRADES E OF 78W. WINDS IN THE NW CARIB ARE DRIVEN BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE REGION...WITH INCREASING NLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIGHTER SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS OF
2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 20N83W TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL EXIST NW OF THIS FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY ALSO EXIST BETWEEN THE ERN
TIP OF HONDURAS NE THROUGH JAMAICA. WINDS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY
SWITCHED FROM S TO N AT BUOY 42057. IF THIS FEATURE PERSISTS
WILL ADD TO 17/0000 UTC MAP. FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES
WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND E OF THE FRONT EXCEPT TO 25 KT NEAR THE
COLOMBIA COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
26N70W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 400 NM NW
OF THE FRONT. A SFC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA AT
32N65W AND CONTINUES WSW TO 30N80W...WHICH IS ADDING A LITTLE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE PREDOMINANT STRONG NW WINDS BLOWING
OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. THE REMAINDER OF THE SFC PATTERN IN THE
ATLC AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE 1026 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N30W. THIS IS SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE
TRADES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. MID TO
UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN AND
CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W. SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE NW PORTION OF THIS
RIDGE IS SPREADING UPPER MOISTURE BETWEEN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
BERMUDA. FAIRLY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE E
ATLC WATERS ALONG 25N31W SW TO 14N43W. WINDS IN THE WRN ATLC
WILL RELAX THROUGH SAT THOUGH THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE NW WINDS/WAVES OFF THE FL COAST INTO SUN
AND MON.

$$
WILLIS




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