[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161701
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N24W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
37W TO 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 1N
ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 39W
AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE W
ATLC NEAR 23N80W CLIPPING W CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. DENSE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND S OF A LINE ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 25N91W TO MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA
MADRE. N OF THIS LINE TO 29N BETWEEN 85W-96W ARE OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH OVER NE TEXAS GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF. WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
GULF WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT COVER THE
GULF CENTERED ALONG THE N GULF COAST INTO THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CLIPS
THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N82W...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W TO N
GUATEMALA. DENSE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVERRUNNING THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OVER CUBA
NEAR 22N81W 20N85W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA ANCHORED ROUGHLY BETWEEN E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY
UPPER AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TOWARD
THE ABC ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W AND CONTINUES
WSW ALONG 27N70W THEN THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W
WITH DENSE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE
SE US WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY N OF THE REGION. A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT THAT COVERS THE GULF
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N75W. UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE NE ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS TO BEYOND 32N55W. THE LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
PRETTY BENIGN ACROSS THE REMAINED OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES
TO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE
TRADES ACROSS A GOOD REGION.

$$
WALLACE



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