[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N23W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W...2S39W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS
WITHIN 120 NM TO THE N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT THE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
AIRMASS TO THE REGION IS STALLED OUT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN NWD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG 24N80W 22N87W 20N90W 17N94W
20N98W 29N103W. A DENSE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS LINGERING
BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN 240 NM. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EMBEDDED IN THIS REGION AS INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR. THESE
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE ACROSS N
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE E GULF FROM 27N-30N E OF AT LEAST 84W.
THIS AREA IS FAVORED FOR MORE PRECIP DUE TO A THIN LINE OF UPPER
MOISTURE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS IT ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC BY A
SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH LIES BETWEEN A DIGGING TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/ERN U.S. AND A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE PAC S OF
MEX. HOWEVER...THE BIG STORY IS THE STRONG NLY SFC WINDS WITH A
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION S OF 25N W OF 90W. THESE
STRONG WINDS ARE BEING GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THAT
HAS SET UP BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT AND A 1033 MB HIGH OVER
KANSAS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS
THE STRONG HIGH QUICKLY TRACKS SWD WEAKENING THE GRAD. NWP
MODELS PREDICT STRONG NLY WINDS TO BUILD BACK THIS WEEKEND
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE REGION SUPPLYING
AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING
ANY SIGNIFICANT TSTM ACTIVITY. BENEATH THE STRONG MID LEVEL
CAP...SMALL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING STEERED BY
MODERATE ELY TRADES E OF 78W. THESE WINDS LIGHTEN AND VEER TO
THE S W OF THERE IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE S
GULF. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH INTO
THE NW CARIB LATER TODAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE ON SAT.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND TURN THE WINDS
N-NE BEHIND IT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N55W AND
CONTINUES SW ALONG 28N66W 24N78W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLA. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER MINIMAL ALONG
THE FRONT S OF 31N...FAIRLY DENSE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY.
CURRENTLY THE FRONT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH
FLOW MAINLY ZONAL. HOWEVER...SUPPORT IS ON THE WAY AS A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. NEARS. THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1026 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR 33N38W. THIS IS SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PRETTY BENIGN ACROSS MOST OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH NW-WLY FLOW COMMON EXCEPT FOR THE NE
CORNER WHERE THE SRN BRANCH OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS
MADEIRA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM 32N16W TO 29N19W. UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 18W-33W.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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