[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 36W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 3S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 TO 50 NM N OF THE AXIS WEST OF
20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 6S-1S BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 20N90W 18N95W...THEN
CONTINUES MAINLY N AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT COVERING MOST OF THE REGION AND THE MEXICAN GULF COAST
WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SE OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT REACHING WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG NLY
WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING
IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE WINDS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS N MEXICO AND THE N GULF WATERS INTO N FLORIDA AND
THE W ATLC N OF 30N. DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION USHERING A COLD AIR MASS
OVER THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. IN FACT...A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
FOR SOME SECTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SE US.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO DOMINATE THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THEM ARE CROSSING THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EPAC EXTENDS A RIDGE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. DRY AND STABLE
SINKING AIR IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE PARTICULARLY
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
ENTER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT AND EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL
AND WEAKEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS ON SAT. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N56W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG
ALONG 28N70W 24N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY CONTINUING OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N4OW EXTENDING A RIDGE BETWEEN 20W AND 70W. THE TAIL END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 31N20W 27N30W. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 40W.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-40W. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
ALONG 25W. DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 28N
DOMINATING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

$$
GR





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