[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111206
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1145 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N9W 6N12W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...1S40W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S49W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO
6N BETWEEN 5W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 1S TO 6N
BETWEEN 24W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
23N96W...PART OF A TROUGH THAT HAS ENTERED THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N62W TO 29N70W...TO RIGHT ON TOP OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N95W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W.
THIS FRONT CONTINUES IN MEXICO ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...CLEARLY DEFINED BY THICK LOW
CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...SOUTH OF 26N
EAST OF 95W...AND NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. THE SURFACE
WIND FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER UNIFORM FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.A. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FIND THE FRONT BASED SOLELY ON
WIND DIRECTIONS. THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRADIENT HAS BEEN USED
IN ORDER TO DEFINE THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BECOME
DIFFUSE...AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE AREA IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 13N67W 22N73W. ABUNDANT DRY
STABLE AIR/SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION FROM FORMING.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS ESSENTIALLY A LINE OF
CONFLUENT WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN WIND FLOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1017 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 25N62W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST NEAR 19N70W.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
TO THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TRADE WINDS ARE
MODERATE. THESE SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN
INCREASE IN SPEED ON MONDAY A RIDGE THAT NOW IS IN THE CENTRAL
U.S.A. BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NORTH OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N62W TO
29N70W TO RIGHT ON TOP OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 25N76W 26N66W BEYOND 31N57W.
A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N50W TO A 1017 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N62W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST NEAR 19N70W. THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST
EASTWARD TO 42W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
33N35W TO 27N42W TO 23N46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 23N62W 26N53W 30N42W BEYOND 32N32W. A SURFACE
RIDGE GOES FROM A 1028 MB MADEIRA ISLANDS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
TO 25N35W TO 22N52W TO 19N60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N26W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 12N44W 9N49W.

$$
MT




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