[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N7W 6N12W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...AND TO THE EQUATOR
AT 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 1S49W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 1N6W. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FROM 1N TO 4N
BETWEEN 4W AND 7W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 7W AND 8W...AND WITHIN
A 15 NM RADIUS OF 2N9W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 10W
AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE
LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR BERMUDA TO
30N72W TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N95W...TO THE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 22N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...CLEARLY DEFINED BY THICK
LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WEST OF
94W. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER UNIFORM FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FIND THE
FRONT BASED SOLELY ON WIND DIRECTIONS. A TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
GRADIENT IS QUITE CLEAR IN THE REGION WITH BUOYS/SHIPS REPORTING
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40'S AND 50'S FAHRENHEIT NORTH OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE 60'S FAHRENHEIT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS SHOW THAT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BECOME DIFFUSE...AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE AREA IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 13N67W 22N73W. ABUNDANT DRY
STABLE AIR/SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION FROM FORMING.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS ESSENTIALLY A LINE OF
CONFLUENT WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN WIND FLOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1016 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 23N63W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST NEAR 19N70W.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE. THESE SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY ON SUNDAY
AND THEN INCREASE IN SPEED ON MONDAY A RIDGE THAT NOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NORTH OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR BERMUDA TO
30N72W TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 25N76W 26N66W BEYOND 31N57W.
A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N45W TO 28N50W TO A 1016 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N63W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST NEAR 19N70W.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY FROM THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST EASTWARD TO 42W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N37W TO 28N44W TO 24N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N63W 26N53W 30N45W BEYOND
33N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N19W TO 26N36W TO 21N56W TO 18N60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N27W. A TROUGH GOES
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N40W 12N47W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net