[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N22W 2N33W EQ40W INTO NE
BRAZIL. THE AXIS IS MUCH MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT DUE TO A DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 20W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE BETWEEN 24W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER NE
BRAZIL FROM THE EQ TO 4S BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC OBS AND VIS IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING TO SUPPORT A WEAK SFC TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 87W FROM
22N-28N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS PRETTY MINIMAL WITH BROKEN
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
AXIS. OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION UNDER MODESTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER BAJA AND RIDGING IN THE CARIB AND GULF...IS
ADVECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD E OVER TIME AS THE
TROUGH DOES THE SAME AND WEAKENS. SFC WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DUE TO THE WEAK PATTERN...ALTHOUGH THEY AREA A LITTLE STRONGER
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE DRIEST AIR JUST N
OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE UPPER CONFLUENCE REMAINS GREATEST
BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIB/GULF AND IN THE
TROPICAL/CENTRAL ATLC. THIS WIDESPREAD SINKING AIR CONTINUES TO
SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...TYPICAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE DRIVEN WWD BY MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES. THE THICKEST PATCHES ARE CURRENTLY E OF
69W...IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE WHERE
TOPO INFLUENCES PLAY A ROLE. LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO SIMILAR
TRADES/WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WSWLY FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE SW ATLC...TO
THE S OF A LARGE POLAR VORTEX. ONE WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER CYCLONE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
1015 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 32N73W. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW WWD TO THE SE U.S. FURTHER S...A SFC
TROUGH IS ALIGNED NE-SW FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 27N67W.
BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG WSWLY WINDS MENTIONED
IS STRETCHING SOME PATCHES OF THIS CLOUDINESS NEWD. TWO OTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CLIP THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA....BOTH OF
THESE RELATED TO THE LARGE POLAR VORTEX OVER ERN CANADA. ONE OF
THE FRONTS IS MAINLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTING N ALONG 31N60W TO
THE 1015 MB LOW MENTIONED ABOVE. THE OTHER IS DISSIPATING
ANALYZED STATIONARY ALONG 32N43W 25N57W. NEITHER OF THESE
BOUNDARIES ARE PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
13N48W WHICH RIDGES NE ALONG 25N39W 32N27W. PLENTY OF DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A RATHER VIGOROUS
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N33W.
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
MOSTLY E OF THE LOW FROM 11N-21N. MOIST SWLYS AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 30W. HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATES THE
SFC PATTERN IN THE E ATLC WITH A 1026 MB CENTER ANALYZED NEAR
28N24W PROMOTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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