[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N35W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 42W...TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. ITCZ
CONVECTION IS MORE ACTIVE TODAY...WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-16W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO
OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-5N W OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC TROUGHING LINGERS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 85W-89W. AREAS
OF LOW CLOUD/FOG ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS AND
ADJACENT GULF WATERS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BURN OFF TODAY. OVERALL
SFC WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND WEAK 1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES JUST S OF PANAMA CITY FL. SEAS
THUS REMAIN QUITE LOW OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING 3-5 FT E SWELL
IN THE WRN GULF FROM THE PROLONGED E FETCH EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO FRI AS WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN 15 KT OR BELOW. N/NE WINDS MAY RAMP UP BRIEFLY TO 15-20
KT IN THE FAR NW/N GULF WATERS LATE FRI INTO SAT BEHIND THE
FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND TEXAS.  UPPER
PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING EXTENDING UP THE WRN
GULF...WHICH IS DRAWING A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE THROUGH NRN
MEXICO/TEXAS AND CLIPPING THE NW GULF WATERS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER BAJA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXTREMELY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE DRIEST AIR JUST N OF THE
COLOMBIAN AND VENEZUELAN COASTS. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING. AT THE SFC...MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ARE ADVECTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PATCHES ARE
THICKEST E OF 68W...IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...WHERE THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TRADES/WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAKENING SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN ATLC OFFSHORE FLORIDA. THERE
IS A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
66W...WHICH MAY CONTAIN EMBEDDED SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SFC TROUGHING IN THIS REGION WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW NOTED
NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER MOISTURE IS STREAMING E UNDER THE
HIGHLY ZONAL FLOW THAT IS NOTICED FROM FLORIDA TO 55W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N44W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 24N62W. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THIS FRONT BUT OVERALL THE FEATURE CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS
IDENTITY. A 1026 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 28N25W DOMINATES THE E ATLC
SFC PATTERN. UPPER PATTERN E OF 55W IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING E
AND NE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 40W. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THE
PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING NEAR 13N34W. EXTENSIVE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS IS MOSTLY E OF
THE LOW FROM 6N-20N E OF 32W.

$$
WILLIS


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