[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 1N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33W CONTINUING ALONG 3S40W INTO NE BRAZIL. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 160 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 10W-40W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA
MODERATE TO STRONG NELY WINDS. THE HIGHEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT 15Z...A 1031 MB HIGH
IS ANALYZED OVER LOUISIANA. A STRONGER SFC HIGH WILL INVADE THE
GULF ON MONDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE
SRN GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HIGH IS A
REINFORCING FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH N FLORIDA TONIGHT. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO INTO THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED AND GENERATED
BY UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO THE E OF A SLOW MOVING SHARP TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO THE EPAC. THE BROWNSVILLE
DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE MEXICO AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS.
GFS MODEL SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUING ITS SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BEFORE LIFTING AND BECOMING ABSORBED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION
CENTERED IN THE EPAC SOUTH OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA. THIS FEATURE
ALSO DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS QUITE STRONG. BELOW THE STRONG
MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY
THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THEM
ARE CROSSING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO
AND DOMINICAN REPUPLIC WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. RATHER STRONG
ELY TRADES...MAINLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
AREA E OF 78W. THIS MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE STRONG
WINDS. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A LITTLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CARIB AS HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS E. NELY WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S GULF AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE SE US MONDAY THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS NE
INTO THE W-CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE GREATER ANTILLES. PLENTY OF
DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE S OF 27N. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
THE E ATLC AND THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 32N27W...15N40W CONTINUING
MAINLY WESTWARD TO NEAR TRINIDAD-TOBAGO ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS OVER WEST AFRICA. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE DRAWING
FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CAPE VERDE AND
CANARY ISLANDS INTO AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE
AZORES S AND SW ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 30N25W THEN CONTINUING TO
26N31W. THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
GULF/STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS THE W ATLC ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT
FROM JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A BAND OF
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND LIKELY ISOLATED SHOWERS IS BEHIND THE
FRONT. IN BETWEEN THE FRONTS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A 1029
MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NEAR 32N40W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 40W
AND WILL SLIGHTLY MOVE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
GR




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