[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N28W 1N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W CONTINUING ALONG 2S42W INTO NE BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-36W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE
IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 5N11W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LIES TO THE N OF A STALLED OR VERY
SLOW MOVING FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO SRN MEXICO ALONG 24N81W 23N88W 18N93W. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRAD...BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SRN GEORGIA...IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NELY
WINDS ESPECIALLY S OF 26N. A PLUME OF THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STEAMING ACROSS THE REGION NW OF A LINE ALONG 19N96W
29N83W. THIS PLUME IS TRANSPORTED AND GENERATED BY MOIST UPPER
LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO THE E OF A SLOW MOVING SHARP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC. AVAILABLE
DOPPLER RADAR COVERAGE DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER S FLA...THE KEYS AND THE STRAITS ASSOCIATED
WITH OVERRUNNING FRONTAL MOISTURE. LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS IN THE W GULF S OF BRO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AND CENTRAL FL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. GFS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE CONTINUING ITS SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE LIFTING AND BECOMING ABSORBED. THE SFC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MODERATE TO STRONG SIDE IN THE SRN
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES
SWD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION
CENTERED IN THE EPAC WITH A ROUGH TITLED RIDGE AXIS ALONG 7N84W
18N78W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND WELL NWD INTO THE ATLC.
ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
AREA...ESPECIALLY S OF 15N WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS QUITE
STRONG. BELOW THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION. RATHER STRONG ELY TRADES...MAINLY IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE...ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA E OF ABOUT 78W. THESE WINDS
SLACKEN IN THE NW CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT IN THE S GULF.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A
LITTLE IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB AS HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC SHIFTS E. MEANWHILE...NELY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER
THE SE U.S.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE GULF SECTION IS
IN THE W ATLC ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM BERMUDA TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WHILE IR IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS...CONSIDERABLE DENSE CLOUDINESS AND
LIKELY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALOFT...A
STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE W AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC W OF 45W. THIS RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO JUST E OF
BERMUDA. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE S OF 27N. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIES TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WITH TWO EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS. THE MORE VIGOROUS ONE IS VERTICALLY STACKED OVER
THE AZORES...THE OTHER IS UPPER LEVEL LOCATED NEAR 24N32W WITH
THE TROUGH CONTINUING FURTHER SW TO 13N43W. A RELATED COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW IN THE AZORES TO 29N29W CONTINUING AS A
TROF TO 26N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 27N-33W. STRONG SWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE ALONG 12W IS
GENERATING AND ADVECTED A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL E ATLC SE OF A LINE ALONG 9N37W
24N19W. THIS MOIST/DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORING
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER INACTIVE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net