[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N11W 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 26W...3S40W TO 4S45W
IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING AND POSSIBLY
RE-DEVELOPING...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6S BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE AREA FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W
AND 16W AROUND 02/1500 UTC. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH SOME NEARBY REMNANT
PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM 13N125W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TO 22N115W TO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 29N105W. UPPER
LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE COVERS
PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS RIDING
ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH RUNS FROM A 1007 MB EXTREME
SOUTHERN GEORGIA 31N84W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W.
A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 21N98W IN EASTERN MEXICO...JUST
WEST OF THE TEXAS BORDER...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN WEST TEXAS NEAR 31N102W. A SQUALL LINE WAS ALONG 29N80W
28N82W 27N84W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY EARLIER IN THE MORNING. THE 02/1500 UTC OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED RAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MINUS THE THUNDER. A 1006 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EMERGES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 02/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA EAST OF 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE FRINGES OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE COMPARATIVELY GREATEST VALUE OF THE DRY AIR IS FOUND FROM 6N
TO 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 78W IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE AREA...AND OVER PARTS OF VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN
THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 77W...AND SOUTH OF
15N WEST OF 77W. THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REST OF THE CLOUDS
THAT PASS 77W ALONG 16N/17N GOING NORTHWARD TOWARD CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF CONFLUENT FLOW
AND CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS NORTH OF 11N65W 13N72W 15N76W 11N76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 50W. ALL THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS
TO HEAD TOWARD THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 18N50W TO
23N41W BEYOND 31N35W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 31N40W TO 26N45W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N45W
TO 23N53W TO 23N64W. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 50W ARE PASSING OVER
THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS PREVAILED OVER THE AREA FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH WHOSE BASE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MOROCCO TOWARD NORTHERN MAURITANIA.

$$
MT


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