[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30W CONTINUING ALONG 2S37W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 14W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 16W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE IS MOSTLY INLAND IN NE BRAZIL FROM 1S-5S
BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 120 KT IS ADVECTING A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF THE GULF. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW TRACKING AT A PRETTY
GOOD CLIP AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT HAS NEARED. AT 09Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM A 1004 MB LOW IN SRN GEORGIA ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE TOWARD S CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 31N84W 25N91W 22N97W.
THE FRONT IS THEN STATIONARY NWD TO BRO. THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT
GENERATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN N FLA
LAST NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS HELD TOGETHER AND PRESSED SE THIS
MORNING. AT 1025 Z...DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A 20 NM SQUALL LINE
FROM 27N84.5W ACROSS TAMPA BAY TO DAYTONA BEACH. MODERATE TO
STRONG SWLY FLOW IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROVIDING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR EARLY FEB. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SE THRU THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY
SLOW OR STALL IN THE S GULF THIS WEEKEND AS IT BECOME DIFFUSE.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE INCREASING THE NLY WINDS AND
ADVECTING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CAUSING THIS STABILITY IS
HIGHLY CONFLUENT BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC
WHICH EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE W CARIB AND A LARGE FLAT RIDGE
CENTERED ABOVE THE EQUATORIAL ATLC. THE AIR IS SO STABLE ALOFT
THAT THE WV ENHANCEMENTS ARE IN THE DRIEST RANGE ACROSS NRN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SRN CARIB. BELOW THE STRONG CAP...TYPICAL
SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS
ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT
QUICK MOVING SHOWERS. MODERATE TO STRONG SFC EASTERLIES ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIB WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS N OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. THESE WINDS DEVELOP A SLY
COMPONENT IN THE W CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF. GFS SHOWS THE TRADES REMAINING MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE UNIFORM ELY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE IN THE SE GULF/NW CARIB ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET AND COLD
FRONT STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF HAS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 29N W OF 72W. SWLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS
REGION AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS OR SO
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING
AIR EXISTS S AND E OF THE AREA OUTLINED OUT TO 47W UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS THE SAME RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE CARIB WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 21N74W 32N68W.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ABOVE THE NRN PART
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE BASE NEAR 26N42W. AN ASSOCIATED
1017 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 37N37W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO 26N47W CONTINUING AS A SFC TROUGH TO 22N52W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/MOIST DEEP SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG WITH SFC CONV
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 34W.
IN THE E ATLC...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED
WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 20W-34W AND AN UPPER
TROUGH DOMINATING E OF 20W EXTENDING FAR S BEYOND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
EXISTS BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL
ATLC AND THE SHARP DEEP TROUGH IN THE E ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS
LEADING TO RATHER DRY STABLE CONDITIONS FROM 10N-20N SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net