[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N8W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 23W...1S30W TO 4S43W IN
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 14W...AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6S BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER FROM YESTERDAY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
STILL IS A FEATURE AT THIS TIME. IT RUNS NOW FROM CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE
COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 87W. A WARM FRONT
RUNS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TO THE
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...TO A TEXAS 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N99W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
30N102W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W..AND
OVER MEXICO FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EMERGES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWARD IN
THE SEA WEST OF 73W. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE 01/1200 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA.
WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE EAST OF 73W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS COMPARATIVELY ITS
GREATEST EAST OF 81W. THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NOT ANY MORE YET. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS
SOUTH OF 17N. THE AREA NORTH OF 17N AND WEST OF 80W APPEARS
TO BE UNDER SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF CONFLUENT FLOW AND CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS
NORTH OF 11N61W 13N70W 14N75W 11N76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 54W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 22N54W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 31N54W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 31N54W 28N60W 27N73W. A SECOND COLD
FRONT GOES FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N49W
TO 30N50W 26N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N55W TO
24N60W TO 22N72W NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N59W 25N54W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 26N51W 29N47W BEYOND 32N44W. A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG 21N43W 28N40W BEYOND 34N38W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N23W
TO 20N23W 15N26W TO 11N36W. THIS TROUGH IS ON TOP OF
A SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 33N27W TO 26N39W 16N48W 9N49W.

$$
MT




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