[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
30W CONTINUING ALONG 1S35W 2S40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS E
OF 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN
20W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF LIES ON THE N SIDE OF A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL E PAC. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT
EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS INDICATED ON WV IMAGES...EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY THICKEN AND SPREAD
FURTHER E ACROSS THE S GULF TODAY. AT THE SFC...A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A COUPLE WEAK
LOWS OR FRONTAL WAVES ALONG IT ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW IN S
MS TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR THE TX/MEX BORDER...NEAR 26N98W...
CONTINUING TO SW TEXAS AT 09Z. SINCE THE WARM FRONT HAS NOW
PUSHED INLAND OVER THE SE STATES...THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE
UNIFORM SLY ACROSS THE AREA...STRONGEST IN THE E GULF WHERE THE
PRES GRAD IS TIGHTENED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE SHOWS
THE BULK OF THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WELL INLAND...SOME OF IT IN
THE FROZEN FORM ACROSS NRN AL AND GA. MORE IN THE WAY OF
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS S OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE N GULF. LOOKING
AHEAD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
PROGRESSIVE AS A COLD FRONT AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE MOUNTAIN W PROVIDES SUPPORT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
PROVIDING SINKING STABLE AIR. THE DRIEST AIR LIES ABOVE THE SE
CARIB AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING STABILITY. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS...ELY TRADES
ARE GENERATING AND DRIVING SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE PATCHES ARE VERY THIN IN THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CARIB BUT APPEAR A LITTLE THICKER AND MORE ORGANIZED IN THE
NW CARIB AND S GULF WHERE THE FLOW DEVELOPS A SLY COMPONENT IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW/FRONT IN THE SRN U.S. SPEAKING OF THE
TRADES...THE FLOW IS FAIRLY MODERATE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL STRONGER WINDS N OF
COLOMBIA. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIB ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MAINLY N OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND TO 26N53W. THIS SHORT WAVE IS PART OF A VERY LARGE
POLAR UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN CANADA. MOIST STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW E OF THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH A NEWLY FORMED 1012 MB
SFC LOW NEAR 31N53W IS PROVIDING ENERGY TO GENERATE A SWATH OF
MOISTURE N OF 26N BETWEEN 38W-48W. THIS MOISTURE SWATH IS MOVING
VERY QUICKLY E. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 25N59W
THEN MAINLY W AS A SFC TROF TO THE E BAHAMAS. S AND W OF THE
AREA OUTLINED...DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE SW AND S
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIB. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LARGE RIDGE
COVERING THE REGION BETWEEN 28W-48W AND A SHARP DEEP TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM MADEIRA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW
MENTIONED EARLIER...IS LOCKED INTO THE RIDGE N OF 27N. THIS
MOISTURE DRIES OUT ON THE DOWNWARD BRANCH BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
TROUGH...NAMELY E OF 32W.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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