[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

FROM CENTRAL COASTAL SIERRA LEONE TO 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 7N50W
9N60W 9N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS EAST OF 20W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS WEST OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A TROUGH CUTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM
THE CYCLONIC CENTER. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER/TROUGH SUPPORT
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER MOST OF
TEXAS. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO...FROM 22N107W TO THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND BEYOND.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...
CROSSING LONG ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA AND RUM CAY...CROSSING
CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO WESTERN CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...WHERE IT JOINS THE DEVELOPING TEXAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 14N
WEST OF 78W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 14N.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CUTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH
OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N66W 13N68W 9N69W IN NORTHERN
VENEZUELA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N70W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. REFER TO THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AT BUOY 41048 NEAR 32N70W DURING THE LAST HOUR.
THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE BAHAMAS IS CONNECTED TO THIS
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A FEW OTHER CYCLONIC SWIRLS IN THE
LOW CLOUD FIELD ARE FROM THE FRONT AND 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N55W 18N57W 16N57W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO
21N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N47W TO 24N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 32N38W 28N45W
23N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N41W 27N37W BEYOND 32N29W.

$$
MT




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