[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

ITCZ...
ACTIVE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N13W 3N32W 8N56W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA
TO 7N65W.  CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90
NM OF AXIS FROM 18W-36W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 44W-47W AND
W OF 53W UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DIFFUSING FRONT FROM WRN CUBA TO 25N90W ONLY HAS THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS TO SHOW ITS POSITION.  MOST OTHER DISTINCTIVE FEATURES
WERE GONE BY LATE LAST NIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTED NE AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TOOK OVER ENTIRE GULF.

NEXT FEATURE APPROACHING IS COLD FRONT OFF SE TEXAS COAST LATER
TODAY AND REACHING FROM 30N92W TO 24N98W SUN AND FROM 29N83W TO
19N95W.  STRONG N-NW WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE S OF 28N
W OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT.  CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
NRN HALF OF GULF AS VERY DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS SRN HALF.  E PAC
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED BY 125 KT JET CORE SUPPORTING FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STABLE DRY AIR MASS PERSIST ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA UNDER
BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH PRODUCES STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 67W BARELY ABLE TO CAUSE MINOR
CONVECTION ALONG ITS AXIS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
MOUNTAIN RANGE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF 10N PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER LAND.  LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER
AREA THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 28N75W WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN NRN CUBA THEN INTO GULF OF MEXICO.   WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT E OF BAHAMAS.  GALE
FORCE WINDS OCCURRING N OF 31N.  GFS SOLUTION TAKES WEAKENING
LOW PRES E-SE THEN TO NEAR 28N65W EARLY SUN.  HEALTHY RIDGE
BUILDING BEHIND LOW PRES EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG
NE WINDS ACROSS SW N ATLC THROUGH MON.  FARTHER EAST...SFC WEAK
TROUGH ENTERS E ATLC AT 31N43W TO 27N48W. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN
125 NM AHEAD OF TROUGH N OF 27N.  LARGE SFC RIDGE REMAINS WELL
ANCHORED OVER E ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER LOW CLOUDS AROUND
ITS PERIPHERY.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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