[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N15W 3N34W 5N50W 4N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OFF THE SOUTH AMERICA FROM 10N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W-58W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF INTO THE W
ATLC. MOSTLY OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE
GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES FROM FLORIDA
TO TEXAS. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 TO 120 KT IS
CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF THEN ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND ANCHORED BY A
PAIR OF 1030 MB HIGHS OVER NE LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH THE NEXT FRONT
MOVING IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW S OF THE MONA PASSAGE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA. MOSTLY DRY STABLE UPPER AIR REIGNS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY S OF 20N TO
THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA W OF THE FRONT.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND
ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW/UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N FROM
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 73W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N70W ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL
BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN CUBA NEAR 22N79W CONTINUING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N W
OF 76W.  A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 TO 130 KT IS
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THEN NE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR
32N74W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 21N75W TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 23N FROM 63W-71W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR E ATLC THROUGH 32N12W ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N30W. A
SURFACE TROUGH OFF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 26N20W ALONG A MID
LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N22W TO 19N22W. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE TROPICS AND A WEAKENING JETSTREAM WITH ESTIMATED
WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N45W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE



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