[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 4N17W 5N30W 4N42W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 4N25W TO 3N27W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION N
OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-9W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 11W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OFF THE SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 44W-55W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF MOVING OVER THE
NW ATLC. THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE GULF LEAVING BROKEN/
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE WITH CLEAR
SKIES ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO TEXAS. A JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE GULF WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO
BE 90 TO 120 KT CENTERED FROM S TEXAS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE
NW ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER E
TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH THE
NEXT FRONT MOVING IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL AGAIN TONIGHT. AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER PUERTO RICO SW TO
COLOMBIA. MOSTLY DRY STABLE UPPER AIR REIGNS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC
EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N86W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE
TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT WHILE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW/UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N73W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS THEN CUBA NEAR 22N81W CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE
FRONT S OF 24N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO BEYOND 32N58W.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 24N
FROM 60W-71W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR E ATLC
THROUGH 32N14W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N24W TO THE
TROPICS NEAR 19N35W. A MID LEVEL LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
TROUGH NEAR 22N22W. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS
AND A JETSTREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
AGAIN TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE


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