[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 03+- 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 6N30W 6N38W 3N52W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. A TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE
ITCZ FROM 10N45W TO 4N47W TO THE BRAZIL COAST ALONG 47W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN 116W RIDGE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN THREE-FOURTHS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACHES INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 24N102W.
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ABOUT
135 NM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N96W 26N90W BEYOND 31N83W IN
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N90W...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W TO 23N99W IN MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 23N99W TO JUST
EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND NEAR 30N102W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N96W 25N92W 28N87W 30N84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 18N60W TO 15N66W
TO 13N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 18N60W 16N64W 14N67W 14N70W. OTHER MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN EASTERLY FLOW FROM 12N
TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE UPPER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N45W TO 22N49W BEYOND 18N60W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W
TO 24N46W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N51W...WITH
A TROUGH TRAILING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 19N58W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N41W 28N36W BEYOND 32N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N39W 22N33W BEYOND 32N32W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 9N TO 16N MOVING WEST
5 TO 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 15N44W 21N37W BEYOND 32N19W.
A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 28N28W...NO PRECIPITATION IS NEAR IT. THE WIND FLOW
MOVES THROUGH THE 32N32W 10N39W RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY HEADS TO
WEST AFRICA TOWARD THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR 14N11W IN SOUTHWESTERN MALI.

$$
MT


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