[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N20W 6N35W 2N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-26W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
26W-32W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N82W 26N90W 25N93W 22N98W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  20-25 KT NLY WINDS ARE N
OF THE FRONT.  10 KT ELY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT IN MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER.  FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO NOTED INLAND OVER TEXAS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT.  A THIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO ABOVE THE COLD FRONT.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF...IN 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK LOW-LEVEL NE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE MONA CHANNEL AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM THE ATLANTIC.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
60W-66W...AND OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-84W...AND INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...THE NRN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.
THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N73W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO A 1012 MB LOW NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N52W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 35W-40W.  A 1031
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N15W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N74W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF
20N AND W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO W AFRICA S OF
15N.

$$
FORMOSA





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