[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 6N20W 5N25W 6N40W 6N43W 3N51W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 26W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN
26W AND 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG
9N40W 5N42W 2N43W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTION...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA PASSING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA TO WEST TEXAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 18N112W
TO 27N121W IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN MEXICO...RIGHT BEHIND THE
TEXAS TROUGH. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS WEAK. BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N56W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF VENEZUELA NEAR 8N68W.
THE LARGE SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC EVERYWHERE
ELSE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN/
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
IS ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SOUTHWESTERLY ELSEWHERE. THE ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS THAT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 14N73W 17N67W ARE IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE UPPER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
35N47W TO 26N51W 20N56W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
MARTINIQUE/SAINT LUCIA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W
TO 26N60W TO 24N68W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 24N68W
TO 23N73W AND JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 28N50W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 24N54W TO 19N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND
52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 24N49W 29N45W BEYOND 32N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N40W 27N39W BEYOND 32N37W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W FROM 6N TO 17N...QUASI-STATIONARY
DURING THE LAST FEW SURFACE MAP ANALYSES. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS ALONG 16N48W 23N38W 27N33W BEYOND 32N27W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N29W...
WITH A TROUGH TO 32N32W. THE FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE 32N37W
10N40W RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY HEADS TO WEST AFRICA TOWARD
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 14N11W
IN SOUTHWESTERN MALI.

$$
MT


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