[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N30W 5N42W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 16W-23W...AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-32W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 10-20
KT SWLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
THE LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE FAIR WEATHER.  A
BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS INLAND OVER TEXAS HOWEVER
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND S OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 64W-70W...AND FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
70W-73W.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 78W-83W...AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NRN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.  THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT...THE SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO TO MOVE SW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN TO HAVE CONTINUED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 31N81W TO
26N79W PRODUCING SOME LOW LEVEL BROKEN CLOUDS.  A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N52W 27N65W.  A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 24N70W 27N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  FURTHER E...A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N54W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N50W TO THE LOW CENTER TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 50W-54W.  A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N22W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N45W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVEL...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A
TROUGH IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 15N BETWEEN
30W-50W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W.  ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO
W AFRICA S OF 15N.

$$
FORMOSA





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