[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS REPOSITIONED BACK TO 27W S OF 21N MOVING W 10
KT.  A DOMINATE 1012 MB LOW IS NOW SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
NEAR 14N27W.  BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA
FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 24W-33W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE
LOW CENTER FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 17W MOVING W 10 KT WITH A 1010
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N50W.  BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 46W-55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 47W-50W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 50W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 23N MOVING W 10 KT.
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE CARIBBEAN E OF
80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 71W-73W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SE OF
JAMAICA FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 74W-76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 74W -78W.

A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W MOVING
W AT 10K.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 15N27W 9N35W 11N50W 10N62W.
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF SW AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W.  CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB LOW DEVELOPED OFF OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W AND IS MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO.  SEE
ABOVE.  NE TO E WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE ARE NOTED OVER MOST
OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N94W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE
GULF ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND OVER THE NE GULF
AND FLORIDA...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE
ABOVE.  TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BELIZE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 88W-90W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 84W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N74W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-20N E OF 84W.  EXPECT
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTEND SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 26N-35N BETWEEN
64W-72W.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N53W.  A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 31N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A SURFACE
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND E OF 35W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N73W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
20N57W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
21N45W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF
35W.

$$
FORMOSA


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