[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 1N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 18W-27W...
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 30W-35W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 36W-40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NE COAST OF
BRAZIL FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N89W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
21N91W 14N93W DRIFTING W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  ELSEWHERE... A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 97W-104W
MOVING N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.   BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND
W OF 92W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.   EXPECT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  RETURN FLOW OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS MAY
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADES COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 76W-85W.  ALSO...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 73W-76W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH AXIS ALONG 10N BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND COSTA RICA...PRODUCING
WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF 10N.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AND W
OF 75W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
EXPECT MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TRADES.

ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS ALONG
31N73W 24N79W MOVING E.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE TROUGH.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N37W THAT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN.  MOSTLY ELY SURFACE FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N FROM
AFRICA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SHARP
TROUGH IS JUST ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC FROM GEORGIA.  A RIDGE IS
FURTHER E BETWEEN 50W-75W N OF 20N.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N40W.  A
BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA





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