[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N15W 3N30W 1N40W 1N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
18W-28W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
32W-39W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-4N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 22N88W 18N90W 16N91W DRIFTING W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
INLAND S MEXICO FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 90W-94W.  ELSEWHERE... A
PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S TEXAS AND THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 96W-100W MOVING E WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.   BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE NW GULF N
OF 24N AND W OF 92W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.   EXPECT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  RETURN FLOW OVER NE MEXICO AND
S TEXAS MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADES COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 76W-85W.  CONVECTION IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER INLAND E
CUBA.  ALSO...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
9N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 73W-76W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG
10N BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND COSTA RICA...PRODUCING WLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW N OF 10N.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AND W OF 75W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.  EXPECT
MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TRADES.

ATLANTIC...
AS OF 0300 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC...N
BAHAMAS...AND S FLORIDA ALONG 31N75W 25N80W MOVING E.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N38W AND DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN.
MOSTLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N FROM AFRICA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A SHARP TROUGH IS JUST ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC
FROM GEORGIA.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E BETWEEN 50W-75W N OF
20N.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
35W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N40W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA




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