[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 3N30W 3N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 1W-9W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 11W-18W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 27W-29W...
AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N85W 24N90W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE
IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
31N82W 27N84W MOVING SLOWLY E.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE.  A 1016 MB HIGH HAS FORMED
INLAND OVER OKLAHOMA...PRODUCING 15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF.  THE SE GULF...E OF THE FRONT...
ON THE OTHER HAND HAS 10-15 KT SELY FLOW.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF
90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF HOWEVER BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND S
TEXAS AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE E OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A SHARP
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 83W MOVING
E.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND PRODUCE WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO S FLORIDA TO W CUBA
WITH CONVECTION WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E CUBA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ACCUMULATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA.  ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N94W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 73W-80W.
ALSO...CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA HAS AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
BETWEEN 70W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WRN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W PRODUCING WLY ZONAL FLOW.  EXPECT MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N60W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO W CUBA.  A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 28N40W 27N50W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS SE OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 37N22W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 24N61W.   ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST E OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
57W-61W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF
50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 13N40W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net