[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 3N30W 3N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-16W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
28W-31W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 33W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N86W 24N92W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE
IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
31N84W 26N87W MOVING SLOWLY E.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE.  A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH HAS FORMED
OVER THE NW GULF...W OF THE FRONT...PRODUCING 15 KT ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.  THE SE GULF...E OF THE FRONT...ON THE
OTHER HAND HAS 10-15 KT SELY FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF HOWEVER BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND S TEXAS AND
IS ABOUT TO MOVE E OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A SHARP TROUGH IS
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 83W MOVING E.  EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
PRODUCE WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SE
GULF WITH CONVECTION WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E CUBA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ACCUMULATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA.  ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N94W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 71W-76W TO
INCLUDE LAKE MARACAIBO.  ALSO...CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
GUATEMALA HAS AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING W WITH THE
TRADEWINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 70W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W PRODUCING
WLY ZONAL FLOW.  EXPECT MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WRN CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N60W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO W CUBA.  A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N32W 26N50W 23N60W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS SE OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 36N24W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N40W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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