[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 5N16W 4N25W 3N30W 2N36W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
47W...AND THEN CONTINUING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N
TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. A TROPICAL JET STREAM MOVES FROM
10N54W TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH NEAR 5N30W...TO 14N17W AND
BEYOND SENEGAL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS EAST OF 90W...MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD
29N78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF
29N91W 24N94W 19N95W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THE 29N91W 19N95W
LINE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST OF
THE HIGH CLOUDS...FLOWING TOWARD AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
32N71W TO 30N81W IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WATERS AT 48 HOURS...IT BECOMES STATIONARY...AND REMAINS IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL-TO-NORTHWESTERN WATERS DURING THE TIME PERIOD FROM
48 HOURS TO 72 HOURS.

THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N58W TO 25N67W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO 21N80W JUST WEST OF CUBA...TO
COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...
PASSING THROUGH 40N25W...HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE SUPPORT ABOVE
THE SURFACE FOR A STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N30W TO 27N40W TO A DEVELOPING WAVE
NEAR 25N54W...TO 20N58W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 17N65W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N65W TO 16N70W TO 12N77W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N78W
16N70W 20N63W PASSING OVER AND AROUND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 20N63W 25N54W 29N50W BEYOND 32N43W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 80W...
COVERING HISPANIOLA AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO THE NORTH NEAR
GREAT INAGUA AND THE TURKS ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N78W 12N68W BEYOND 12N60W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 19N42W TO 24N34W BEYOND 32N23W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...FROM
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N28W TO 22N40W TO 16N50W
TO SURINAME NEAR 5N57W. THE FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LAST DAYS HAS BECOME
SEPARATED OR SPLIT APART OVER AFRICA. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH IS COMPLETELY OVER ALGERIA AND MALI. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
17N17W TO 12N25W TO 9N34W 9N40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

$$
MT


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