[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 4N16W 3N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W...AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
6N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. A TROPICAL JET STREAM MOVES
FROM 9N48W TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH NEAR 5N30W...TO 14N17W
AND BEYOND SENEGAL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS EAST OF 90W...MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD
29N78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF
29N91W 24N94W 19N95W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THE 29N91W 19N95W
LINE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST OF
THE HIGH CLOUDS...FLOWING TOWARD AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
32N73W TO 30N81W IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N91W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS GULF COAST AT 48 HOURS...AND THIS
FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST WATERS DURING THE TIME
PERIOD FROM 48 HOURS TO 72 HOURS.

THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N58W TO 25N67W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO 21N80W JUST WEST OF CUBA...TO
COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...
PASSING THROUGH 40N25W...HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE SUPPORT ABOVE
THE SURFACE FOR A STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 27N40W TO DEVELOPING WAVE
NEAR 25N54W...TO 20N58W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 17N65W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N65W TO 16N70W TO 13N76W TO
11N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 12N78W 16N70W 20N63W PASSING OVER AND AROUND PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N63W 25N54W 29N50W BEYOND 32N43W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N78W 12N68W BEYOND 12N60W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 19N42W TO 24N34W BEYOND 32N23W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...FROM
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N28W TO 24N38W TO 20N50W
TO 15N57W. THE FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE LAST DAYS HAS BECOME SEPARATED OR SPLIT APART
OVER AFRICA. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH IS COMPLETELY OVER
ALGERIA AND MALI. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH NOW EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N17W TO 12N25W TO
9N34W 9N40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

$$
MT




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