[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202227
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 2N31W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 23W-34W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
28W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 35W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO OVER THE SE US. THIS CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W GULF GENERATING ONLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS. DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW
IN THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO ALONG THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA. DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE LIMITING
SHOWERS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING S FROM OVER THE E US BRIDGING THE DYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENCOMPASSES THE GULF AND SHALL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DRAPES A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N84W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVELS HOWEVER ARE
DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PUMPING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER COLOMBIA
AND NW VENEZUELA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 68W-76W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS OVER PANAMA GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY INLAND AND
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA E OF 82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 20N E OF 47W TO FLORIDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO E CUBA
NEAR 20N76W AND DISSIPATES IN THE CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS A 1`012 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 29N79W WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30W-47W WITH ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 20N65W TO BEYOND
32N48W. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS NE OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF
GIBRALTAR WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N E OF
25W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N FROM AFRICA COAST
TO 45W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W. DRY AIR DOMINATES
THE E ATLC AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL ATLC...LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND PUSHING THE ITCZ TO THE S.

$$
WALLACE




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