[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201817
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN
21W-32W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
32W-44W...AND FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS.  10KT NE FLOW IS NOTED
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WHILE 10 KT E FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W.  AS OF 1500 UTC A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY
TRAVERSING CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
28N80W 28N85W 30N92W MOVING SE.  NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS N OF 22N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CUBA.  EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN
OUT AND PRODUCE WLY BY 24 HOURS.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
DISSIPATE OVER S FLORIDA.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NE MEXICO AND S
TEXAS W OF 96W WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE NE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BELIZE ALONG 20N74W
17N80W 17N87W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT.  A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W.
10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE LOW...E OF 80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER LAKE MARACAIBO
VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 70W-73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W.
MOSTLY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO COMPLETE DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  SLY SURFACE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N79W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1000 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N58W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 29N60W 20N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN
43W-52W.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N28W.
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 16N48W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY
ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM FLORIDA TO W AFRICA.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N E OF 45W.  A WEAK TROPICAL
JETSTREAM DEPICTED BY THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM S OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO W AFRICA ALONG 10N30W 20N10W.

$$
FORMOSA





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