[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N9W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W...GOING TO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AT 51W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOUTH OF 7N13W 5N20W 4N30W 3N44W 3N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEYOND
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTH OF 22N EAST OF 87W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 30N77W
1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W TO
25N88W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT GOES FROM 25N88W TO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF 27N89W 23N87W...
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 24 HR TO
48 HR FORECAST IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA...AND TO HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY IS IN PLACE. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 25N52W TO 21N60W TO THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG
71W FROM 18N TO 19N. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
42W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 25N52W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 25N52W TO 21N60W TO THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG
71W FROM 18N TO 19N. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N50W 28N41W 32N38W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL JET STREAM. BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
FROM VENEZUELA AND GUYANA/SURINAME/AND FRENCH GUIANA TO 3N37W
23N26W BEYOND 25N18W ACROSS MOROCCO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 100 NM TO 300 NM TO 500 NM WEST OF THE
JET STREAM FROM 23N TO 3N.

$$
MT





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